rust never sleeps

11-10-08--The encomiums greeting Barack Obama’s victory last week presented a reverse image of the darts for John Kerry after his 2004 defeat. But Kerry campaign veterans could not help noticing a surprise in the returns. In the battleground state of Ohio, where Mr. Kerry lost the presidency to George W. Bush, the 2.74 million votes he received almost precisely matched Mr. Obama’s 2008 total. Mr. Obama won because John McCain received 300,000 fewer votes than Mr. Bush did. That points to a cautionary reminder for Mr. Obama and his team: the election turned partly on what they did right, but also on what Republicans did wrong. And there is no assurance that Democrats will confront a similarly star-crossed opposition in elections to come.

“We should be confident, but not cocky,” said Donald Fowler of South Carolina, a former national Democratic Party chairman. “Several things that worked against them in this campaign could change quickly.” Among them, Mr. Fowler said of the deeply unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, “Bush is going to disappear.” Mr. Obama, a senator from Illinois, inarguably fashioned an impressive victory for any Democrat, much less the first black nominee in American history. His 52 percent share of the popular vote exceeded that of any Democratic candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 — and topped Ronald Reagan’s 1980 majority against Jimmy Carter. With breakthroughs in the South, Midwest and Mountain West, Mr. Obama captured at least nine states carried by Mr. Bush in 2004, with the outcome in Missouri still unclear. Yet the record-shattering turnout that some observers predicted appears not to have materialized. Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate projects that, when outstanding votes are tallied, the number of Americans casting ballots will fall short of the 130-million floor predicted by the McCain and Obama campaigns. Mr. Gans ascribes that shortfall in part to diminished Republican fervor — a “demobilization” that created political openings for Mr. Obama’s disciplined campaign organization. The reasons for that begin with Mr. Bush’s political infirmity, but they do not end there. Lacking a deep wellspring of support among conservative party regulars, Mr. McCain courted them to win the Republican nomination — in the process weakening his once-formidable standing among independents. He sought to appeal to both factions with his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, and saw most Americans deem her unqualified for the presidency. The campaign’s unalloyed appeals to cultural populism drove well-educated, high-income voters to the Democratic ticket. Meantime, disarray among Congressional Republicans over the financial bailout package in September compounded injuries Republicans suffered throughout Mr. Bush’s second term to their reputation for pragmatism and competence. Democrats “benefited greatly from tapping into voters’ frustrations about a very badly damaged Republican brand,” said Mr. McCain’s political director NYT A17